I can’t think of any reason to teach little children to use a Windows or Mac computer. Introduce them to the future with a truly personal computer: iPad.
Why not teach them to use a “real” computer? Well, why not teach them to use a typewriter? Looking at the combination of hardware and software which we’ve come to think of as a normal computer, I think it will feel like an IBM Selectric typewriter, by the time today’s toddlers graduate from college.
At this point, some of you are shaking your head thinking, no way is that cute little iPad gonna replace the powerful computer with which I do real work. People who think that way are just one of the reasons the change I’m predicting will happen gradually, while today’s 3 year olds are growing up. A bigger reason is we’ll have to wait while tablet computing hardware and software evolves and realizes its potential. It’s still early days; for years after the first desktop computers had become available, most desks were still dominated by a typewriter or blotter pad.
iPads, iPhones and Android smartphones are already selling by the tens of millions, every quarter. It’s taken Apple 2 years just to catch up with the demand for iPads. You already see executives using these to work, on the road and at home. At first, many entered the workplace via the backdoor and personal purchases, not the IT department. That’s exactly how it happened with the first personal computers. But I also know of IT departments issuing these tablet and pocket computers, to do real work, often replacing traditional business tools, like laptops and Blackberries.
Think how few typewriters you see in the workplace, today. That’s the future of desktop computers running the Windows or Mac operating system. If Microsoft is still selling an operating system named “Windows” in a couple decades, I bet it will resemble Windows 7 about as much as Windows looks like MS-DOS (Microsoft’s first operating system, for those of you who didn’t use computers 20+ years ago).
To be clear, I’m not predicting that products from Apple will dominate all computing in the next 10-20 years. The computers we use are going to change radically, but it’s too early to predict with certainty which company will sell most of them to us.
I am predicting that keyboard & mouse based operating systems, like Windows and OS X (or their successors), will gradually become more rare, like typewriters. Of course, some tasks will still be better done with ol’ skool tools. Some of us will need a more complicated interface to do what we do. Just as many businesses and some individuals need trucks; but most people drive a car.
And most of us learn to drive a car first, before a few of us learn to drive an 18-wheeler. Which is why I say, if you want your young child to learn to drive the computer of tomorrow, today, you give them an iPad. It has redefined what personal computing feels like, and more closely resembles the future than any other device yet available.
All these thoughts stem from a conversation with Glenn Tucker, last night, about his (cute!) 3 year old. And from remembering how and when my son first learned to operate a computer (without a mouse, nor a graphical interface) and Nintendo (with complex combinations of button clicks) — and which of those early skills remain relevant two decades later.
BTW, I am predicting that I will be one of those people still using the “typewriter” in 20 years. But most of my non-technical friends will be relieved that they never need to drive a big truck to do their work or manage their life. In fact, they won’t even have to use a stick shift.
